Fundamentals of Ocean Forecasting

Follow the science behind forecasting our changing oceans

The ocean is constantly in motion.

Currents shift, temperatures fluctuate, and waves and tides influence everything from fisheries and maritime transport to coastal communities and climate systems.

But how do scientists predict what happens beneath the surface?

On this seven-week course, you’ll uncover the science and technology that power modern, end-to-end ocean forecasting — from the physics of the ocean to the services that reach society.

Dive into the systems that make ocean forecasting possible

You’ll discover how observations, models, and user applications fit together and investigate the physical processes that drive ocean circulation, tides, waves, and variability.

Turn data and models into forecasts

You’ll learn how numerical models are developed and how satellites, Argo floats, buoys, and data assimilation improve forecast accuracy. You’ll explore the Copernicus Marine Service and build confidence interpreting sea surface temperature maps, current fields, and sea level anomalies.

Identify how ocean forecasts support communities and industries

Through examples from Africa and beyond, you’ll discover how ocean forecasts contribute to maritime safety, fisheries management, coastal planning, and disaster risk reduction. By the end, you’ll understand how ocean forecasting supports sustainable decision-making.

This course is developed as part of the OPERA Capacity Development Activities, led by the ICMPA-UNESCO Chair and GGOSSS. OPERA is implemented by Mercator Ocean International with EU funding, and the course draws on the ETOOFS Guide, the international reference for operational ocean monitoring and forecasting systems.

This course is designed for students, early-career professionals, and practitioners in oceanography, marine science, meteorology, fisheries, coastal management, and maritime operations. No prior experience in ocean forecasting is required.

This course is designed for students, early-career professionals, and practitioners in oceanography, marine science, meteorology, fisheries, coastal management, and maritime operations. No prior experience in ocean forecasting is required.

• Describe the architecture and purpose of an end-to-end ocean forecasting system, from observations to user applications
• Explain the fundamental physical principles governing ocean circulation, including geostrophic balance, Ekman dynamics, tides, waves, and mesoscale variability
• Explain how numerical ocean models are constructed, configured, and used in operational forecasting at global, regional, and coastal scales
• Identify the major satellite and in-situ observing systems that supply ocean forecasting systems, and explain the role of data assimilation in improving forecast accuracy
• Identify and access key upstream data sources including Copernicus Marine Service products and atmospheric forcing datasets
• Interpret common ocean forecast outputs such as sea surface temperature maps, current fields, and sea level anomalies, and recognize their limitations
• Explain how ocean forecast products are translated into downstream applications across sectors such as fisheries, maritime safety, and coastal risk management, with examples from Africa